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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward script. It commonly serves as a kind of apology. We regret we got wrong your team in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic improvement wins the award. In reality, it sparks an annual debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or just the most shocking shock.

But this year's race is distinctly unique. The group of nominees is unusually talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been messy, with recent division champions declining and recent also-rans improving together. In an normal year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a wild and entertaining year, he's up against multiple other exceptional candidates.

This is how the projected vote ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right system, Williams has been given the opportunity to showcase his special ability. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to spin magic out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost every bet – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the building with the immense pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, he would be the runaway choice. Yet this isn't a normal year!

The area where his candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term success. But Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has mastered the leadership stuff, which was not a certainty following his initial public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. From the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse had the team stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him just one place ahead of other QBs.

Still